20 Jun 2020

Australian-Croatian economist discusses Croatia’s economy after EU accession

As is well known among our Croatian diaspora communities, our base is large, vast, and powerful. Croatian diaspora has a clear and distinct presence in many established nations like the United States, Canada, Australia, Chile, Argentina, and of course throughout the rest of Europe. Although the estimates are rough, it has been recorded that there are over 2 million Croatians living outside of Croatia. This amount, considering that Croatia’s internal population is only just over 4 million is simply extraordinary. With such a global reach, the diaspora communities really hold a lot of hidden potential and influence with regards to their homeland.

The positive impacts of Croatian diaspora can be highlighted through some success stories of individuals who have returned to Croatia from the diaspora and have made real change in the domestic spheres of politics, economics, and society. One such example can be shown through Goran Šaravanja’s detailed career in Croatian commerce as a returnee who was born and raised in Australia.

Article written by Peter Bury, Editor at Crodiaspora and Politicorp

Goran began his career in Australia at the New South Wales Treasury, which is a government department responsible for financial reporting, advising, and policy development. Shifting focus to Croatia, he worked in the Ministry of Finance, on macroeconomic forecasting and public debt management. In the private sector since 2001, Goran first worked as a regional Senior Economist at the Zagreb subsidiary of Austrian bank Creditanstalt Investment Bank, then moved on to work as Chief Economist at Croatia’s largest bank, Zagrebačka Banka as well as serving on UniCredit’s economic analysis team for four years. Next, from 2012-2017, Goran was the first ever Chief Economist at INA, in the oil and gas industry, and for his final two years there he also served as the head of Strategy Development. Most recently, Goran has founded a private consulting firm, IMELUM, which acts as an independent source for financial and business advising in South East Europe.

In a public webinar with Crodiaspora’s Mate Pavković, Goran shared some of his vast insights on working in Croatia, the process of returning to the homeland from the diaspora, and some of the future prospects for Croatia.

In discussing Croatia’s accession to the European Union and their fit and recent adaptations to the European framework, Goran outlines that although Croatia is a clear net recipient in the EU, he acknowledges that since joining the union, Croatia’s exports have surged and risk has diminished as a result of new direct and consistent access to a major consumer market in Europe. More recently, Croatia has garnered financial attention through hikes in their credit rating, which now stands as an investment-grade rating by multiple reputable rating agencies.

In terms of Croatia’s political atmosphere, Goran highlighted one major event that re-solidified the nation’s path to a stable democracy, and that was the short-lived government of Tihomir Orešković. Democracies have built in mechanisms like early elections, which Orešković faced, that prove democratic resiliency and flexibility in times of struggle, disagreement, and political deadlock. In this specific case, early elections did the work and maneuvered the nation to another government where agreements could be made to facilitate policy introduction.

Now, one of things that so many people in our diaspora wonder about is the business environment and potential in Croatia. Having substantial experience in that field, Goran talks about his interactions and conversations with foreign investors he met with mostly during his time with Zagrebačka Banka. He explains that their concerns with the Croatian business atmosphere is that there is an evident lack of ambition and lack of real expansionary effort among domestic businesses. He goes on to say that generally, Croatian business owners like to make their money, live a comfortable life, and that’s that – but what foreign investors are looking for and what Croatia is lacking are companies with real ideas and passion driving their growth, and ambition to really take the operations to the next level.

This is where diaspora can really play a transformative role in Croatia’s domestic growth and development. The simple fact is that we have grown up in nations with a different mindset when it comes to business; we have been exposed to more opportunities, and with them we get a greater degree of natural ambition. With these externally sourced assets, the Croatian diaspora has the potential to come back and act as an economic, political, and social driver for Croatian prosperity now and in the future.

Tasked with a diminishing population, as seen through our diaspora, attracting young people to come and live and work in Croatia must be one of the nation’s top priorities. Goran mentions that the issue with this is that emigration is not a Croatia-specific problem but rather one for all of Eastern Europe, and in any case, the major factor for attracting new professionals is all around stability, and that is something that must simply be fostered over several years.

One thing though that has been a central topic regarding Croatia in the European Union is their anticipated entrance to the Eurozone and adopting the euro as their main currency. The euro has the potential to be very good for Croatian commerce and trade as it will reduce transaction costs which are brought upon through currency exchange, reduce economic uncertainty, and provide an increased degree of financial transparency. With these economic stabilizers in place, Croatia will undoubtedly have an enhanced platform with which to advertise their eagerness to welcome new professionals and their ideas into our increasingly stable and reliable nation.

Further, with an increased Croatian participation in the European Union by way of joining the Eurozone, our accession to the Schengen Area nears. The Schengen Area is another facet of European connectedness of free movement by way of abolished border stops and customs checks. Needless to say, when Croatia joins the Schengen area, it will experience substantial boosts in overall movement of goods and labour as well as an influx in an already thriving tourism industry.

However helpful these additional EU mechanisms may be, Croatia still has outlying gaps in its own domestic economy. Namely, Croatia is not an economically diverse nation. With its GDP relying heavily on the service sector, industry and agriculture should be seen as opportunities where Croatians can take initiative and create a niche for themselves to carve out the framework for more domestic businesses. With energy giants INA and HEP dominating the high end of Croatian business, there is so much opportunity for ambitious professionals to build new industries and diversify the national economy into one where no one industry has to prop up the entire nation.

The fact still stands that there is such an abundant Croatian population outside of Croatia with such driving passion and ambition for growth and innovation and it would be a shame not to bring back some of that passion to the homeland to support growth and industrial advancements. From agriculture to computer technology, Croatia is a niche market with expanding economic potential by way of the European Union, and it can be a fantastic platform for small businesses to expand and thrive as opposed to being shut out of more established and rigid markets elsewhere.

Goran definitely has some excellent insights on the inner workings of Croatia’s economic system and financial sphere and his expertise is always recommended for anyone looking to invest or get involved in Croatian business, or any business operations in South East Europe for that matter.

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